Here is the forecast I made on Tuesday afternoon:
As you can see, my forecast was a bit low. The morning snow was unexpected. I didn't anticipate that accumulation as I thought we would have more of a rain/snow mix overnight Tuesday night. That gave the area a 1-4" head start and snarled the morning commute.
I also didn't anticipate the snow being able to stick as fast as it did. Most areas saw a period of very heavy sleet that provided a crusty ice base for the snow once it started so not much was lost to melting on wet surfaces. I also didn't anticipate the widespread thundersnow. Like storms in the summer, these quickly upped the snow rate (over 2+ inches an hour) and allowed for the localized amounts near a foot. I knew that thundersnow would be possible, I just didn't think it would be as prevalent as it was.
Overall, I believe I still had the right idea and without the morning snow, numbers would fall more in line with my thinking.
Next Snow Chances?
We could see some snow showers tomorrow and Saturday from a series of weak clippers, with minor (half inch) accumulations. Our next chance of significant snow appears towards the middle of next week.
The GFS model is advertising a Groundhog Day special with another coastal storm potentially affecting the area:
It is still a long way away and things will definitely change, but I wanted to give a heads up that this is the next snow possibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment