Maryland Weather Forecast Blog

New Blog

2011-02-21T08:00:00.000-05:00

For those that are following this blog, I have moved to a new blogging service and integrated it fully into my website. If you go to http://www.marylandwx.com you will see that the homepage is now the blog.

I have been wanting to make the blog a bigger part of the site and update it much more frequently.

The one draw back is, the new service doesn't allow for instant emailing of a new blog post, so if you are signed up to receive an email when I post, you will no longer have that. I did set up a mailing list with the new site that will send an email between 5pm and 7pm of any new posts made in the previous 24 hours. I know this isn't ideal, but I am hoping with the new layout of the website, most people will be able to see the latest blog posts right on the homepage. If you want to sign up to receive this daily digest email, simply click on the black envelope icon under the "Stay Connected!" section of the left menu bar.

Thanks for the support and for following Maryland Weather! I hope you enjoy the new site layout!

2/4/11: Freezing Rain Advisory

2011-02-04T15:03:00.000-05:00

Freezing Rain Advisory in effect from 1AM to 6AM tomorrow for: S. Baltimore, Baltimore City, Howard, and Montgomery counties.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST UNTIL EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. THE BEST

CHANCE FOR ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE BETWEEN 2AM AND 5AM.

Freezing Rain Advisory in effect from 1AM to 10AM tomorrow for: Allegany, N. Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford, and Washington counties.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE BEST

CHANCE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE BETWEEN 3AM AND 8AM.

2/2/11: Jim Cantore witnesses thundersnow

2011-02-02T20:24:00.001-05:00

This is a clip of Jim Cantore witnessing thundersnow in Chicago last night at the height of the blizzard:

1/31/11: Some Ice, Then Rain

2011-01-31T20:08:00.000-05:00

Expect light snow and sleet to continue to develop over the area tonight, transitioning to freezing drizzle. The freezing drizzle will continue, off and on into Tuesday morning, before possibly changing to plain rain and ending tomorrow afternoon.

A heavier batch of precipitation will move in late tomorrow night. This batch will likely be freezing rain for most areas Tuesday night. The freezing rain will continue into Wednesday morning for the northern and western counties, while it changes to rain in central and Southern MD.

Up to a half inch of ice accumulation is possible in the Northern and Western counties (those under the Winter Storm Watch), but significant icing should not be a concern for the rest of the area.

Rain/freezing rain will continue into Wednesday afternoon, before the cold front moves through.

Be sure to check the website for updates on the progress of the storm and surface temperatures, as well updates on Watches and Warnings.

1/30/11: Forecast - Another Midweek Threat

2011-01-30T13:07:00.000-05:00

Another week, another significant storm threat

We are in a very active pattern right now and it continues to produce major storms in the Eastern US. This week's storm will not be a coastal storm however, as all model guidance take it west of the Appalachians. This storm track will ultimately mean rain for the area, but there looks to be frozen precipitation for a period, before we change over.

Take a look at the following GFS model graphic for 1am Tuesday morning:

If you look along the east coast, you can see the isobars (black lines) and the isotherms (red and blue lines) bending south. This is a classic representation of cold air damming. As the storm moves in, it is bringing a surge of warm air. This warm air runs over top the cold air that is trapped near the surface. The high pressure to the north of us keeps the cold air locked in east of the mountains.

This map also shows some light precipitation over the area. This is a result of the rush of warm air ahead of the system. At this time (1AM) it should be cold enough for this precip to be all snow, but as we head into the morning afternoon hours on Tuesday, it will change to sleet and then freezing drizzle.

Here is the map for 7am Tuesday morning:

This map continues to show the cold air damming and the freezing line down to near the VA/NC border. Surface temperatures are still below freezing, but the warm air continues to surge northward aloft.

1PM on Tuesday:

Here we see the freezing line moving back north and basically right through the state. As the storm continues its northward trek, the warm air continues to surge and displaces the sub-freezing temperatures at the surface and changing the precip to just plain rain.

The good news is that most of the precipitation that falls from this storm will indeed be plain rain. The bad news is, most models do a fairly poor job at handling cold air damming situations and tend to erode the cold faster than it actually does. What this means is, we could see a fairly long period of light sleet and freezing rain into Tuesday evening.

By Tuesday night, the transition should be well underway and temperatures will continue to climb all the way to the mid-40s on Wednesday. The bulk of the precip will fall late Tuesday night and Wednesday so there is no concern of a major ice event for our area.

7AM Wednesday morning:

The freezing line has moved well to our north by 7AM Wednesday morning, while the heavier precip is falling as rain. Expect Wednesday to be a relatively mild day, with rain lasting into the late afternoon, early evening hours. When all is said and done the GFS shows us ending up with an inch of liquid precip, but again this will fall mostly as rain:

While it will be mostly rain for us east of the track, those west of it appear to be line for a heavy snowstorm. Illinois and Indiana appear to be in the jackpot zone, where Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches are already posted for snowfall totals in "feet" not inches.

Looking ahead

Several models are hinting at yet another coastal low possibly affecting the area by the end of the week. It will take a few days to sort through everything to see how it may affect us, if at all. For now, it is just something to keep an eye on.

1/27/11: Snow Totals and Next Possible Storm

2011-01-27T13:55:00.002-05:00

Here is a map of reported snow totals from the NWS:

Here is the forecast I made on Tuesday afternoon:

As you can see, my forecast was a bit low. The morning snow was unexpected. I didn't anticipate that accumulation as I thought we would have more of a rain/snow mix overnight Tuesday night. That gave the area a 1-4" head start and snarled the morning commute.

I also didn't anticipate the snow being able to stick as fast as it did. Most areas saw a period of very heavy sleet that provided a crusty ice base for the snow once it started so not much was lost to melting on wet surfaces. I also didn't anticipate the widespread thundersnow. Like storms in the summer, these quickly upped the snow rate (over 2+ inches an hour) and allowed for the localized amounts near a foot. I knew that thundersnow would be possible, I just didn't think it would be as prevalent as it was.

Overall, I believe I still had the right idea and without the morning snow, numbers would fall more in line with my thinking.

Next Snow Chances?

We could see some snow showers tomorrow and Saturday from a series of weak clippers, with minor (half inch) accumulations. Our next chance of significant snow appears towards the middle of next week.

The GFS model is advertising a Groundhog Day special with another coastal storm potentially affecting the area:

It is still a long way away and things will definitely change, but I wanted to give a heads up that this is the next snow possibility.

1/26/11: Storm Update

2011-01-26T15:24:00.001-05:00

Everything continues to unfold about as expected... the NWS has expanded the Winter Storm Warning back to the east to include the central Maryland counties that were previously under an Advisory. Southern MD and the lower Eastern Shore remain under the Advisory for 2-5 inches.

I am sticking with my original forecast from last night:

Here is the text of the Winter Storm Warning:

WWUS41 KLWX 262014

WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

314 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ036>040-042-050>056-501-502-
270415-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110127T0900Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON
314 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SLEET CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4PM AND 10

PM...IMPACTING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS

EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

1/25/11: Snowfall Forecast

2011-01-25T18:34:00.000-05:00

I disagree a bit with the National Weather Service forecast for this storm.  I do not think we will see Winter Storm Watch level snows (5+ inches) in the DC/Baltimore Metro areas.  I think the snow will have a difficult time sticking at first, and the shot of heavier snow they expect tomorrow evening will be of short duration, as the storm races northeast.

Nonetheless, I expect a few inches in Central Maryland with higher amounts north and west of the cities, where the changeover will happen sooner (mid-morning vs. early afternoon).

My Forecast:

NWS Forecast:

1/25/11: NWS Bumps Snow Totals

2011-01-25T10:59:00.001-05:00

There is a possibility of snow accumulation tomorrow evening as colder air begins to filter back into the area, changing the rain back to snow.

Snow totals will be cut down, due to the rain and wet surfaces but a few inches along the I-95 corridor isn't out of the question.

EDIT: The entire state, except for the lower Eastern Shore is now under a Winter Storm Watch for 5 inches or more of snow:

Winter Storm Watch

Predicted Snow Totals

1/24/11: Near Perfect Track... Imperfect Pattern

2011-01-24T15:35:00.002-05:00

For the first time this winter, the models are converging on almost a perfect storm track to bring a significant snowfall to our area. The only problem (for snow lovers) is that the cold airmass that is currently in place will move out to sea before it arrives.

The blue line is the freezing line. As you can see, central MD and points east are above freezing.

With no strong cold air source to the west or north, and the storm bringing plenty of warmer air with it, our perfect storm track looks to bring mostly rain to areas east of the mountains.

As it looks right now, this should be a mostly rain event, with snow mixing at times and ending as a bit of snow. Here is the NWS forecast for central MD:

Tuesday Night	A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday	Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night	Rain and snow likely before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

The one certainty is that as this system pulls away, it will drag in another reinforcing shot of cold air for next week.

1/22/11: Midweek Snow Threat

2011-01-22T13:32:00.000-05:00

Another coastal storm system will approach the area Tuesday and Wednesday of this coming week. As it has been all season, the models continue to have disagreements as to where the system will fully develop and where exactly it goes after doing so.

Currently, the GFS model is trending towards a storm that develops to our south, then moves Northeast, bringing very little precipitation to the area. The ECMWF (a European model) has the low much closer to the coast and more precipitation for the area.

Latest GFS for Wednesday Evening (00z Thursday):

Latest ECMWF for Wednesday Evening (00z Thursday):

As you can see, the GFS has the low about 500 miles further east than the ECMWF, which has the low just off the Delmarva coast on Wednesday evening. This gap is significant, as is the difference in the resulting weather for our area.

Given the seasonal trends, I am leaning towards the GFS solution and little to no snow. This is a low confidence forecast, and things will most certainly change. I will update as things (hopefully) come into better focus over the next few days.

12/25/10: Post Christmas Snow?

2010-12-25T13:21:00.000-05:00

I was out of town last week and have been busy with Christmas festivities since my return, so I have not been able to look at the models too closely.

I did check in with the NWS while I was away and it appears that this possible storm has been very hard to pin down. Even today, there is great uncertainty regarding the track of this system.

What is known:

A low pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast and move NE tomorrow into tomorrow night.

What is unknown:

The exact track of the system. One scenario has it moving up the coast, just off shore while the other scenario has the track further off the coast, resulting in little to no snow.

The models began showing this system a week ago, but have flip flopped and shown no consensus on the track. Generally, we see the models begin to converge on a track a few days out. What we saw this week instead, was each sticking to their different ideas, and not until Friday did we see a trend towards an off the coast solution.

...and then last night's models came in...

Beginning yesterday, a subtle shift back towards the west occurred and then last night a more substantial shift occurred, raising our chances for accumulating snow. Today's GFS model continues the trend:

It is still possible that the storm tracks off the coast, but the National Weather Service is confident enough to issue Winter Storm Watches for the area with accumulations greater than 5 inches possible.

This forecast is very tricky, and will definitely change before tomorrow. Stay tuned to the NWS and local news outlets for the latest information on this possible storm, affecting our area tomorrow afternoon into Monday morning.

9/29/10: Heavy Rain On The Way

2010-09-29T07:40:00.009-04:00

A stationary front will setup over the state today as a low pressure develops and moisture from Tropical Depression 16 gets pulled north and through the area.

Flash Flood Watch in effect until Thursday evening.

Rain will overspread the area this afternoon and become heavy overnight as a low pressure forms off the North Carolina coast. This low will also pull in moisture from TD 16 enhancing the rainfall. The stationary front should move back through the area as a cold front Thursday afternoon, bringing another chance of showers and storms before clearing out Thursday evening.

Rainfall totals of 2-4" are expected by Thursday evening.

9/10/10: NWS bumps rain chances to "likely" for Sunday

2010-09-10T08:38:00.004-04:00

After holding the chances to 40% for the past few days, the NWS has increased the chance of showers on Sunday up to 60% and "likely." Totals don't look to be a lot, but up to a quarter of an inch could fall and every little bit helps at this point.

The last measurable rain in Central MD fell on 8/23.

Hopefully everyone gets some much needed rain, as after this it appears another dry week is on the way.

9/2/10: Earl moving towards the OBX

2010-09-02T08:53:00.008-04:00

Earl continues to move towards the OBX with sustained winds of 145 mph. The storm should pass just east of Cape Hatteras and begin to turn to the NE, sparing Ocean City of hurricane force winds.

8/5/10: Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect until 10PM

2010-08-05T13:26:00.003-04:00

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE
MARYLAND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BLUEFIELD WEST VIRGINIA TO 50 MILES EAST OF PATUXENT RIVER MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 574...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MLCAPE HAS NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF VA...IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW. GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.

...THOMPSON

7/29 - World Record Hailstone

2010-07-29T11:49:00.000-04:00

World Record Hailstone Weighed In Vivian

By Shawn Neisteadt
Published: July 27, 2010, 5:52 PM

VIVIAN, SD - A small South Dakota town is being recognized for a big find after last Friday's storms.

It was Friday afternoon when a line of thunderstorms fired up in central South Dakota. High winds, heavy rains and even a possible tornado rolled through the town of Vivian. But now days later, a hailstone picked up just moments after the storm is getting worldwide attention.

The damage is proof that it wasn't a typical South Dakota thunderstorm. Holes were punched through the top of buildings, and Les Scott will never forget what it sounded like.

"A guy throwing bricks at the house and many of them and it was scary," Scott said.

Scott watched as massive hailstones pummeled the ground. Tuesday, the dents in the ground are still visible, some as large and deep as coffee cans. But when the hail stopped, a certain stone grabbed his attention.

"I just happened to see this one fall and the only reason I went out and got it is because it has all these fingers sticking out of it and I thought, 'Oh, that's weird.' So I thought I'd go get that one," Scott said.

Scott originally wanted to make a daiquiri out of the hail, but decided to contact the National Weather Service instead. Tuesday, they were in Vivian. They carefully took the stone from the freezer and placed it in a cooler with dry ice. The next stop was at the post office where the hail had a date with the federally certified scale. Moments later, the hailstone weighed in at 1.9375 pounds.

“Officially, where records have been kept, this will be the U.S. record and world record for weight. So very impressive," Mike Fowle of the National Weather Service said.

But the inspection of the new world record hail wasn't done there. To ensure that the hailstone didn't melt, it was then measured while inside a freezer at a local convenience store.

The hailstone is down to 17 inches around, but was measured just a few days ago at 18 and a half inches. That is another world record number.

"I didn't think it was near that, but I'm glad I got it I guess. I'm just sad about the town of Vivian. I hope the insurance people help them out as much as they can because they need it," Scott said.

As impressive as the size and weight are, it may have topped two pounds when it fell from the sky. While Scott placed it in the freezer, the power was out for six hours following the storm, and it likely melted a bit in that time.

7/13/10: Flash Flood Watch

2010-07-13T14:34:00.002-04:00

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

* AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVERNIGHT.

* ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS BELOW TWO INCHES AND SIX HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW THREE INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

7/5/10: Heat Advisory

2010-07-05T13:54:00.001-04:00

WWUS71 KLWX 051750
NPWLWX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
150 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ011-VAZ054-060200-
/O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0001.100706T1600Z-100708T0000Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

150 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 DEGREES IN THE CITIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 EACH DAY. IN ADDITION - TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 80 DEGREES THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. THE VERY YOUNG AND ELDERLY ARE MOST AT RISK.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER IS TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS. WATER AND SPORT DRINKS ARE THE BEST CHOICES. IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE DURING THE AFTERNOON SUN. SPEND TIME IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS IN AN CAR...TEMPERATURES INSIDE THE VEHICLE CAN EXCEED 130 DEGREES IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.

&&

$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

2010-06-24T12:33:00.006-04:00

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG DIFFUSE COLD FRONT NOW BISECTING PA. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG LEE TROUGH. STRENGTH OF DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND CONTINUED LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE/BANDS.

...CORFIDI

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074

2010-06-22T11:48:00.003-04:00

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL PA...MD...PARTS OF ERN WV...NRN/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221535Z - 221600Z

WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL PA SWD THROUGH MD...PARTS OF ERN WV AND NRN/ERN VA.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY/PA AND NRN VA/MD THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED 40 KT WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER OH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL PA TO NRN VA AS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SPREADS EWD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED SSWWD FROM SWRN ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL OH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EWD TODAY AND MARK THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

CLOUDINESS/FILTERED SUNSHINE ACROSS PA...ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS AND LEADING BAND OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PA TO THE ERN WV PANHANDLE IS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING SOME THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN A SLOWER DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS THUS FAR. HOWEVER... FURTHER DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM OH INTO CENTRAL PA AND SWD TO VA/MD.

12Z WRF-HRRR SUGGESTED THE ONGOING STORMS OVER CENTRAL PA TO ERN WV PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH NEW TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN PA TO WV AROUND 17Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A POTENTIAL TORNADO THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GREATER IN ANY LOCATION WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE SLY...HENCE INCREASING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WRN PA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY BACKED TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY PRIOR TO WINDS VEERING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..PETERS.. 06/22/2010

6/10/10: 4 Months Ago Today

2010-06-10T07:39:00.000-04:00

6/7/10: Video - Incredible Lightning Strike

2010-06-07T07:36:00.001-04:00

Video of a near-miss lightning strike in Norman, OK in July 2007.

6/6/10: Forecast - The Week Ahead

2010-06-06T07:20:00.000-04:00

Showers and storms are likely today, with highs in the upper 80s as a cold front moves through the area.

Monday and Tuesday should be pleasant, with highs in the low 80s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday night and Wednesday with an associated cold front.

The front should clear the area on Wednesday night, allowing high pressure to move in with a return to sunshine and temperatures in the mid-80s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

5/27/10: Video - Angry Weather Caller

2010-05-27T16:24:00.000-04:00

5/19/10: Video - Hail Storm in Oklahoma

2010-05-19T16:33:00.001-04:00

Check out this video of an intense hail storm in Oklahoma. It gets pretty good at the 1:00 mark, and down right crazy at 1:30:

5/4/10: Article - Unbelievable: Still snow at BWI...

2010-05-04T16:13:00.006-04:00

Evolution of the snow pile outside the BWI Airport hourly parking garage. Photos courtesy Jonathan Dean - BWI Airport

BWI Airport issued the following press release yesterday:

Last of Winter Snow Appears Ready to Finally Melt Away at BWI Marshall Airport
Snow pile behind Airport's Hourly Garage almost gone
The final trace of the record 2009-2010 winter season appears ready to finally melt away at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI Marshall). A large snow pile located behind the Hourly Garage at BWI Marshall Airport will likely completely melt this week.

Keep reading for the rest of the press release and for updates on a couple other snow piles in the region...

"This snow, still remaining here in early May, reminds all of us of the record storms this winter," said Paul J. Wiedefeld, Executive Director of BWI Marshall Airport. "I want to again acknowledge and thank the snow team employees at BWI Marshall who worked extremely long hours this winter to clear snow for Airport customers. It was a winter that none of us will soon forget."

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service report that 77 inches of snow fell at BWI Marshall Airport this past winter. The snow pile that is finally melting away this week originally appeared following the back-to-back February storms that dumped 44.5 inches of snow at the Airport. Snow was pushed off the top of the six-story Hourly Garage, resulting in a large pile.

The BWI snow pile is one of several in the region to last into at least late April. In a PM Update last week, we noted the demise of a long-standing snow pile in Charlottesville, Va. - Mt. Chipotle (officially put to rest on 4/28). Frank Roylance at MarylandWeather.com blogged about a snow pile still standing in Lancaster, Pa. as of May 1. Congrats to those of you who indicated snow piles would stick around after April 15 in our poll back in mid-February.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/05/unbelievable_still_snow_at_bwi.html

Edit: Here is a slide show from WBAL that shows just how massive this pile was: http://www.wbaltv.com/slideshow/news/23436457/detail.html

4/25/10: Forecast Update - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

2010-04-25T17:27:00.002-04:00

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
PARTS OF DELAWARE
MUCH OF MARYLAND
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
SMALL PART OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SALISBURY
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

...

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY A SUPERCELL COULD FORM VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY ENHANCING BOTH THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AND A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.

...

...HALES

4/25/10: Forecast - Chance of severe storms today

2010-04-25T09:33:00.007-04:00

Today is the first real threat of severe weather this year. Currently, there is a warm front setup right through Central Maryland which will move northward today. This will allow temperatures to climb to near 70 and will push dewpoints into the 60s.

Storms should develop to our west during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and move into our area early this evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has put the region in a "Slight Risk" for severe storms:

They forecast a 15% probability of damaging winds:

A 15% probability of hail 1" or greater:

...and a 5% probability of tornadoes:

If you have plans outdoors today, be sure to stay alert and be prepared to move to sturdy shelter should a storm threaten your area.

4/15/10: Article - Hail Hurts!

2010-04-15T16:00:00.000-04:00

Runners Caught Outside As Hail Storm Hits

GRINNELL, Iowa --

Four Grinnell College students out for a run Tuesday were caught outside in a hail storm and had to be taken to the hospital.

Related Stories:

Pat Crawford told KCCI that she and her husband were driving near Grinnell when they found one of the students along the road.

"We saw right up here, there was a kid in the road looking like he was flagging things down. And you could tell he was a runner because he had the running shorts on, he was barefooted, and he looked pretty beat up," said Crawford.

ulocal: Pat Crawford

Runner caught outside in hail storm.

The student told Crawford that he, another man and two women tried to hide in a ditch when the storm hit, but they were forced to seek shelter when the hail became too intense. They were also worried they might drown as water started flooding into the ditch.

"They thought it was a tornado, which a lot of us thought it was a tornado. So they laid in the ditch, which was a good idea but they were just getting the tar beat out of them and the ditches were filling with water, so they knew they couldn't stay there," said Crawford.

The students found a nearby empty house to hide from the storm in, said Crawford.

ulocal: Pat Crawford

Runner's body covered by welts after hail storm hit.

The students were covered in red welts after being pounded by the hail. Crawford and her husband loaded the runners into their van and took them to the hospital.

PICTURES: Storm Damage

The Grinnell College cross country coach met the students at the hospital.

One of the students required X-rays to check for broken bones. They were all treated and released from the hospital.

Crawford said she had never seen anything like it.

"That's why I took the picture. It was unbelievable. I've never seen a human body that looked that beat up and they were still walking around," said Crawford.

There were also high school students outside when the storm hit, including the boys soccer team. We're told some players were slightly hurt. There was also damage at the tennis court.

Storm spotters in the area reported 1 to 1.5 inch hail.

The storm also snapped utility poles in the area, damaged trees and caused other damage, storm spotters reported Tuesday night. Wind gusts were clocked at 75 mph from the storm in the nearby town of Brooklyn around 5:44 p.m.

4/6/10: Forecast - If you can't stand the heat...

2010-04-06T21:08:00.004-04:00

The warm-up that was forecast for the beginning of this week has over-performed and has reached record levels. Yesterday, the high at BWI hit 84, breaking the record of 83 set in 1942. Today, BWI tied the record high of 90 degrees, set in 1929. Tomorrow's record high of 93 set in 1929 looks to be safe, but highs will again be around 90 degrees.

Relief in the form of a cold front with showers and thunderstorms looks to come Thursday evening. Expect showers and storms Thursday evening through Friday morning, with highs near 80 on Thursday, but dropping off significantly Friday with a high around 60.

Clearing takes place during the day Friday, setting the stage for a clear and pleasant weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and near 70 Sunday.

3/29/10: Outlook - Hang in there!

2010-03-29T07:39:00.003-04:00

After a cool, rainy start to the week, high pressure returns and the warm-up will begin. The low pressure that is currently affecting the area will move out during the day on Tuesday and clearing begins Tuesday night.

Sunshine returns Wednesday and continues through the weekend with highs increasing each day to near 80 by Saturday and possibly into the 80s on Sunday.

3/24/10: Forecast - Cold Front Approaches

2010-03-24T20:10:00.003-04:00

A cold front with an area of low pressure riding along it will approach the area tomorrow and bring rain tomorrow night into Friday. Expect .75 to 1 inch of rain by Friday afternoon, along with some gusty winds. Cold air will flow in Friday afternoon and temperatures could fall into the upper 20s by early Saturday morning.

Sunshine returns on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Rain chances increase again Sunday night and Monday.

Welcome to spring!

3/21/10: Forecast - Happy Spring! Sunny today, then rain

2010-03-21T10:20:00.002-04:00

Happy first full day of Spring everyone!

The string of beautiful weather continues today with sunshine and highs in the mid 70s. Enjoy it though, because a cold front brings rain late tonight. Expect showers and possibly a rumble of thunder tomorrow and showers to linger into Tuesday. Clearing should occur Wednesday and Thursday with highs knocked back a bit to the low 60s.

Rain chances increase again towards the end of the week.

3/14/10: Forecast - Drizzle then sunshine returns

2010-03-14T20:32:00.002-04:00

Drizzle and scattered showers will be possible through tomorrow before skies clear and temperatures return to the upper 50s to low 60s for the rest of the work week and into next weekend. Right now, it appears that rain chances will come back for the second half of next weekend.

3/11/10: Forecast Update - Heavy rainfall and possible flooding

2010-03-11T19:52:00.006-05:00

The entire state except for the lower Eastern Shore is now under a Flood Watch:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND...NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* RAIN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WILL INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT FOR URBAN
AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

HPC forecasts up to 4.5 inches of rain between tonight and Monday night:

Expect rain to develop later tonight and continuing tomorrow. The rain will become heavy at times tomorrow night and Saturday. It should taper off Saturday night and Sunday morning, but light rain chances will continue into early next week.

3/10/10: Forecast - March showers bring... possible flooding.

2010-03-10T07:47:00.004-05:00

Widely scattered showers will clear the area this evening, but skies will remain cloudy. A steadier rain will develop tomorrow evening and continue into tomorrow night. Up to a half inch of rain is expected before ending Friday morning. Another batch of heavier rain will move in Friday evening and last into Saturday. Total rainfall of 1-2 inches combined with snow melt could bring flooding conditions to streams and rivers.

The entire system will be slow to move out, so rain chances (although not heavy) will continue Sunday and into early next week.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs in the 50s to near 60 through Sunday.

3/7/10: Outlook - Pleasant weather gives way to rain

2010-03-07T19:07:00.002-05:00

Sun and warm temperatures will continue tomorrow and Tuesday. Right now, it appears that rain chances increase Wednesday and become steady on Thursday and possibly heavy Thursday night. Rain chances continue Friday and into the weekend, while temperatures remain above normal.

3/1/10: Forecast - Rain & Snow tomorrow night and Weds

2010-03-01T19:59:00.003-05:00

The storm that will effect the area tomorrow night and Wednesday continues to look like it will mostly miss. I expect tomorrow to be dry, with rain or rain/snow showers developing Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will be marginal for snow, therefore no snow accumulation expected west of the Bay but on the Eastern Shore, 1-2 inches of snow could accumulate, as the precipitation will be heavier there.

2/28/10: Outlook - Mid-week threat lessens

2010-02-28T16:54:00.005-05:00

The system that threatens to bring snow to our area Tuesday night and Wednesday now appears that it will mostly miss us as it moves to our south then up the coast, but well east of the area.

Here is today's 12z GFS showing the progression of the storm at hours 66, 72 and 78 (1AM Wed, 7AM Wed, and 1PM Wed):

As you can see, the models show a pretty powerful storm developing, but the track is well south and then east of us. This model run still shows rain or snow showers for the area, but nothing major.

There is still the possibility that the track could change, but that is looking more unlikely.

2/26/10: Outlook - Still tracking mid-week snow threat

2010-02-26T15:21:00.005-05:00

The models still show a potential storm for the middle of next week. The details should come into focus over the next several days. Right now, it tracks a bit too far east to be a major snowfall for our area, but the potential is there for another storm:

2/25/10: Forecast - Snow this afternoon - Friday morning

2010-02-25T12:32:00.003-05:00

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll and Harford counties for 1-2 inches today and 1-2 more tonight.

These areas will definitely see snow, but with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 30s it will be very hard for it to accumulate today, especially on the roads. I believe 1-2 inches may accumulate tonight as temperatures fall below freezing this evening. This could cause slick spots on the roads overnight and into tomorrow morning.

The wind will be the biggest story with this storm, as gusts around 60mph possible tomorrow throughout the state.

2/25/10: Outlook - High Wind Watch issued

2010-02-25T09:40:00.006-05:00

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-EASTERN MINERAL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY ...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK ...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON... MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...PETERSBURG...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY

935 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

..HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH MAY GUST TO 60 MPH OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

WINDS THIS STRONG WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...AND MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
PELOQUIN

WWWW

2/24/10: Forecast Update - Snow Tonight and Thursday

2010-02-24T22:21:00.002-05:00

A quick update... With temperatures still around 40 degrees and the radar looking unimpressive, I have updated my forecast to bump my totals down across the board:

Most of central Maryland will now see a dusting to 2 inches, and the heaviest snows remain well to our northeast.

2/24/10: Forecast - Snow Tonight and Thursday

2010-02-24T16:49:00.004-05:00

After bringing the very strong low pressure center much closer to our area yesterday, the models have again backed off and it now appears that we will only have to deal with a glancing blow as the storm intensifies to our north. I still expect a decent snowstorm for northeastern Maryland and strong gusty winds to effect the entire area.

The storm will come in two phases... A light rain/snow mix will develop tonight, changing to all snow with light accumulations for most of the state. The second part will be when the low strengthens to our north and brings additional snows to the northeastern portion of the state tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Here is my forecast map:

2/23/10: Outlook - Surprise Snowstorm

2010-02-23T16:21:00.011-05:00

I mentioned last week that there was the potential for a snowstorm in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Since then, there has been very little model consistency regarding any potential storm. Most of the models have shown that little pieces of energy would rotate through the area following yesterday's rain storm. What keeps these pieces from turning into a major storm is the lack of phasing with the subtropical jet and therefore, lack of major moisture.

The models had been consistent in showing that scenario for tomorrow and Thursday... until last night. Last night, the NAM model showed energy from Canada phasing with energy from the south basically right over us, and producing a major storm just to our north. We need this phase to occur to our south in order for the system to impact our area.

This afternoon, the GFS model showed this solution:

Here you can see the energy (yellow) coming out of Canada and meeting up with the energy coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.

This merger takes place to our south and results in this:

The low forms to our south and begins to move up the coast. The GFS has this low intensify rapidly and moves it into New York state, and eventually loops it back down towards Maryland.

The end result...

This map shows the total precipitation in liquid inches. As you can see, there is a sharp gradient right over our area with extreme NE Maryland approaching 1.50" and NE Virginia only in the .25-.50" range. A standard 10 to 1 ratio would indicate that anywhere from 2.5" to 15" could fall as you move from southwest to northeast across the state. Of course, this makes the forecast extremely tricky. Any deviation in the track will have major implications on how much snow falls across the state.

Another issue with this storm will be the wind it produces. As this low moves up the coast and "bombs out" winds will increase dramatically. Winds could gust to 60mph+ on Thursday.

This is an extremely complicated forecast and that is why it has not been modeled well. However, there is enough confidence at this point for the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the Northern and Eastern parts of the state, but even they aren't as confident as they would like to be:

12Z GFS WOULD CERTAINLY BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MD. WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WEST/AGGRESSIVE AS GFS AND ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY EXAMINED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BUT WITH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT AND THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE THIS WAY...WILL INCREASE POPS/QPF ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND FOR SNOW. 50 PCT CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA /5 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 7 INCHES IN 24 HOURS/ EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. THIS MAY BE A STORM WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL...WHICH ADDS TO THE CHALLENGING NATURE OF THIS STORM. SO PLEASE STAY TUNED AS THIS TIGHT GRADIENT COULD CUT THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA.

Stay tuned and as the details come into better focus, I will update the situation.

2/22/10: Outlook - Snow showers... Storm possible next week

2010-02-22T19:43:00.005-05:00

The current system effecting the area is expected to move off the coast of Maine and stall. This will allow several smaller pieces of energy to rotate through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing the possibility of snow showers on both days, but nothing major is expected.

There should be some clearing for the weekend before another system potentially effects the area towards the middle of next week. Right now, it appears that system will track well to the south and east of the Mid-Atlantic:

This potential storm is over a week away and things will change. As currently modeled it will not be an issue but if it tracks closer to the coast, there is the potential for another major snowfall. Stay tuned!

2/19/10: Forecast - Monday rain... Snow later in the week?

2010-02-19T20:08:00.003-05:00

The models have come in to fairly good agreement on the Monday storm system. Precipitation should overspread the state late Sunday night, possibly starting as a wintry mix, especially west of I-95. Any areas of mix will transition to all rain and last through the day Monday and Monday night. It looks like 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain will fall before ending late Monday night, possibly as a period of snow.

After that system moves out, there is the possibility of another storm for the Thursday-Friday timeframe. With fresh cold air in place thanks to the departing Monday storm, this storm would most likely be a snowstorm. This is definitely something to watch, but there is little consensus amongst the models as to the strength of this storm.

2/17/10: Outlook - Potential Storm Monday/Monday Night

2010-02-17T21:25:00.002-05:00

The models continue to show a potential major storm for Monday or Monday night, but there is very little agreement or consistency amongst them as to the placement and strength of the system. The duration, timing and type of precipitation is highly dependent on the track and right now it is simply too early with too much spread in the models to determine.

The potential certainly exists for another major snowstorm, so stay tuned as the details come into focus.

New Address

2010-02-17T08:23:00.003-05:00

You may or may not have noticed, but I have created a new domain for this blog. You can still reach it by going to: http://mdweather.blogspot.com but as of yesterday, the official address for this blog is: http://blog.marylandwx.com.

Thanks!

2/14/10: Forecast - Minor Snow Event Monday into Monday Night

2010-02-14T20:31:00.005-05:00

An Alberta Clipper will move through the area Monday and Monday night, bringing light snow to the area. This Clipper will be a fast moving, light event with minimal impact.

West of I-95: Snow will develop Monday afternoon accumulating 1 to 2 inches during the day. The snow will continue Monday night, with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible by Tuesday morning.

Along and east of I-95: Snow will develop Monday afternoon, mixing with rain with little to no accumulation expected. The mix will change back to snow Monday night, with 1 or 2 inches of snow expected by Tuesday morning.

After this event, the weather should be fairly quiet for the rest of the week. Highs will be near 40 with plenty of sunshine which will help to continue melting the snowpack.

2/13/10: Special - What's with all the snow?

2010-02-13T19:02:00.014-05:00

As I'm sure you have noticed, we have received a record amount of snow this winter. What is causing this? How does this compare to average?

The following is a Q&A explaining what is going on...

What is a normal winter like in this area?

The Baltimore area generally sees several minor to moderate snowstorms a season. January and February usually see the greatest snowfall accumulations. We usually get a major storm (12 inches or more) about every 7 years or so. Since 2003 (the last major storm and above average year) BWI has seen season totals of 18.3, 18.0, 19.6, 11.0, 8.5 and 9.1 inches. Since 1971, BWI's running season average is 18.2 inches. As you can see, we have been well below average for the past 3 years. You could say we were due for a snowy winter!

How do this year's snow totals compare to a normal winter?

BWI has measured 79.9 inches of accumulated snow so far this winter. This total dwarfs the average as well as the previous record, which was set in 1995/1996 with 62.5 inches.

For comparison sake, here are some snowfall averages for select cities around the country:

Anchorage, AK: 70.6"
Billings, MT: 56.7"
Buffalo, NY: 93.6"
Burlington, VT: 78.8"
Chicago, IL: 38.5"
Cleveland, OH: 56.9"
Denver, CO: 60.3"
Duluth, MN: 80.7"
Grand Rapids, MI: 73.2"
South Bend, IN: 70.8"

For the complete list: Click Here.

What have been some other note-worthy storms in this area?

Here is a list of the the greatest three-day snowfalls on record in Baltimore history (before this year):

1. 26.8" Feb 2003
2. 26.6" Jan 1996
3. 26.5" Jan 1922
4. 22.8" Feb 1983
5. 22.0" Mar 1942
6. 21.3" Feb 1899
7. 20.0" Feb 1979
8. 15.5" Feb 1958
9. 14.9" Jan 2000
10. 14.3" Jan 1928

In 118 years of record keeping, Baltimore had gotten more than 15 inches of snow only 8 times. This winter alone, BWI has surpassed 15 inches on 3 different occasions!

Take a look at the National Weather Service's page: History of Big Winter Storms for this area for more details.

What is causing this abnormally snowy winter?

The combination of two main features is causing all of this snow: El Nino and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). El Nino is abnormal warming of the waters off the coast of Peru which leads to cooler and wetter winters here and allows storms to tap into deep tropical moisture. A negative NAO causes cold air that would normally stay to our north to spill down into the eastern United States. This displaced arctic air is forced into our area because an area of high pressure over Greenland forces warmer air into the arctic. This blocking pattern setup once in December, relaxed during January, and has since returned. It is currently modeled to stay in place into March, so we have the potential to see more big snowstorms.

Here are two links with more on El Nino and the NAO:

El Nino: Click Here.

NAO: Click Here.

So hang in there Maryland! You are witnessing an historic winter, first hand. No one else here has seen snowfall totals like this in at least 118 years!

...And remember, there are only 34 days until spring!

2/11/10: Summary - The Blizzard of 2010 #2

2010-02-11T15:50:00.015-05:00

With 2 feet of snow still on the ground from this past weekends storm, another seemingly smaller storm was fast approaching the area. After digging out on Sunday, I began to look at the models and the possibility of more snow heading for the Mid Atlantic. This storm would be different however; it was looking to be a "Miller B" type storm.

A Miller A storm is a Nor'Easter that originates along the Gulf and moves up the coast, bringing snows to most of the East Coast.

A Miller B is a trickier setup. This type of storm originates in the Midwest, and redevelops somewhere along the coast and moves north from there. These storms need everything to work out perfectly for any one area to receive a major snowfall. Historically, for our area and south, it is even less likely as the low generally develops too far north to bring significant precipitation to our area.

Another added challenge to this storm was that there was very little model consensus. Most if not all models showed the Midwest low moving far enough south that we would possibly get a significant snowfall. Although each differed in the amount and the exact placement of the low. With a Miller B, any small difference can cause drastic changes to the forecast.

The National Weather Service had seen enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch on Sunday for 5 or more inches.

I continued to look at the data, searching for a reason why this storm would not work out, as they haven't in the past. On Monday, the National Weather Service increased totals to 10-20 inches across the state.

On Monday evening, I issued my first forecast:

I had seen enough to now realize that this Miller B could be the rare snow producer for us. The storm was to come in two waves, first the overrunning upper level snow, which would be light, then after a lull, the coastal storm was progged to move in, giving us the bulk of our snow. My forecast had northern into northeast Maryland in a 12-18 range and tapered back to 4-8 inches for Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore, where it looked as if sleet would mix in and cut down totals.

Late Monday, the models came in with even more moisture and better dynamics. I increased my totals to account for this and issued a second forecast on Tuesday morning:

Throughout the morning, the models began to show less snow and more uncertainty. The NAM model came in with a more northwesterly track and had the entire area changing to sleet, while also moving the heaviest precipitation northeast. Could this be be the "problem" that I was looking for or was it just a "bad run" of the model? This was enough of a red flag for me to lower my totals, although not too much as I didn't want to throw out days of case building based on one model run. The National Weather Service kept their forecast for 10-20 inches, seemingly unfazed by this run.

This was my last forecast:

The snow started around 3:30 and it became apparent that the first part of the storm would be much more than the models had shown. This portion was supposed to give an inch or two of snow, but was actually putting down 7 inches in some areas. I measured 3.9 inches here at 10pm. By 11pm, something unexpected happened... we changed over to sleet and freezing rain. This meant that the southern storm was stronger and more northwest than anticipated, and perhaps the NAM was right.

As the second portion of the storm moved in, we changed back to snow as it pulled colder air back down into the area. The low was gathering strength to our south and Blizzard Warnings were posted across the entire state (something I had never seen before):

by 11:30am we had piled up 9.7 inches and the low was off Ocean City, Maryland, getting much stronger.

Here are two pictures during the near whiteout conditions:

The storm continued to slowly move north and it basically stalled as it bombed out off the New Jersey coast and continued to throw moisture and winds over 40mph over the region. The snow continued here until about 8pm, dumping a wind-whipped 19.2 inches in my backyard and 19.5 at BWI, shattering their record for snowiest season ever.

As for my forecast, it ended up being too low across the board. I did not anticipate how heavy the first part of the storm would be or how long the heavy precip would stay over the state on Wednesday. I figured the snow would gradually taper off on Wednesday, but due to the low bombing out the way it did, heavy snow and winds continued well into the evening. I did have the right idea about sleet mixing in, just not as far north as it did. I also had the right idea about totals dropping off just southwest of DC as Dulles only picked up 9.3 inches.

This Miller B was truly an amazing event here. Coming on the heels of another major storm and dropping as much snow as that one in some areas. The most amazing part for me was how quickly and how deep the low pressure strengthened. The low was moving north of Ocean City around 10am, and the pressure readings at my station bottomed out at 29.31". As the storm moved north, my pressure went up to 29.33", but even though it was moving away, my pressure again dropped to 29.27" at 2pm, as the deepening was stronger than the effects of it moving away from my area. Truly an amazing event.

My season snowfall total now stands at 80.5" and BWI is at a record 79.9". This pattern looks to hold until we get into March so there should be more chances to add to this record, starting with another possible storm on Monday.

2/10/10: Record - Snowiest Winter Ever at All Three Airports

2010-02-10T15:10:00.001-05:00

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...PRELIMINARY ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORDS SET AT THE THREE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA...

AS OF 2 PM TODAY...WITH THE 9.8 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN WASHINGTON DC STANDS AT 54.9 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC OF 54.4 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1898-99. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR WASHINGTON DC DATE BACK 126 YEARS TO 1884.

AS OF 1 PM TODAY...WITH THE 11.9 INCH TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL MEASURED AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT...THE SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL IN BALTIMORE STANDS AT 72.3 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS ALL-TIME SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR BALTIMORE OF 62.5 INCHES SET IN THE WINTER OF 1995-96.
OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR BALTIMORE DATE BACK 118 YEARS TO 1893.

FINALLY...AS OF YESTERDAY...THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT STOOD AT 63.5 INCHES. THIS WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS SEASONAL SNOWFALL RECORD OF 61.9 INCHES SET IN 1995-96. AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE TWO-DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DULLES IS 8.5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD MAKE THIS YEARS SEASONAL SNOWFALL TOTAL 72.0 INCHES. OFFICIAL SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR DULLES DATE BACK 48 YEARS TO 1962.

THESE PRELIMINARY STORM TOTALS ARE AS OF THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 10 FEB 2010...AND WILL BE UPDATED AFTER THE CURRENT SNOW HAS ENDED.

AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

$$

KLEIN/ZUBRICK/LEE

2/9/10: Forecast Update - THIRD FORECAST MAP for the 2/9-2/10 Snow

2010-02-09T17:23:00.002-05:00

Here is my third and final call for this storm:

I dropped totals slightly and shifted the bands northeast a bit as it appears the heaviest snowfall will now be further northeast than I originally thought. Sleet will mix with the snow in Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore, before changing back to all snow. For the DC northward, it should stay all snow.

2/9/10: Forecast Update - SECOND FORECAST MAP for the 2/9-2/10 Storm

2010-02-09T07:58:00.006-05:00

I have updated my forecast, based on the latest information:

Snow will begin late this afternoon, become heavy tonight and tomorrow. Winds will also increase and will gust over 40mph tomorrow morning. This should be all snow for the area, except lower Southern Maryland and the lower Eastern Shore.

2/8/10: Forecast - FIRST FORECAST MAP for the 2/9-2/10 Storm

2010-02-08T15:41:00.005-05:00

A tricky forecast coming up. Models are in agreement that another major snowfall will occur over the state. We do not usually see much snow from this type of system, and all the ingredients must come together perfectly, but at this time and given the pattern we are in, it appears that this storm will impact the area significantly, just days after digging out from this past weekend's blizzard.

Here is my first forecast for this coming storm:

At this time, it appears the precipitation will fall as snow, except for areas of southern St. Mary's and Calvert counties, as well as the lower Eastern Shore.

As always, this forecast could change. If my totals need adjusted significantly, I will issue a new forecast.

2/8/10: Outlook - Winter Storm Warning

2010-02-08T15:07:00.002-05:00

WWUS41 KLWX 082004
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-053-054-WVZ053-090415-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.100209T1700Z-100211T0000Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK... WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...CHARLES TOWN
304 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/HTS

WWWW

2/7/10: Outlook - Winter Storm Watch

2010-02-07T15:23:00.004-05:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
315 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2010

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ040-042-052>054-501-080415-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.100209T1900Z-100210T2100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON
315 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

KLEIN/KRAMAR

2/7/10: Summary - The Blizzard of 2010

2010-02-06T19:14:00.034-05:00

The idea of a major winter storm on the east coast began to come into focus last weekend, as one storm was bringing over 6 inches to the area and another was forecast to bring more last Tuesday (it did, 5 more inches). While most of the area was dealing with those two storms, me and the rest of the meteorologists in the area were focusing on what was looking like a major storm for this weekend. Just about every model out there were locking in on this storm and did a fantastic job showing the potential. With that much agreement, confidence was high very early on that this storm would be potent.

I began alerting people of this storm early last week and on Thursday evening, I issued my first forecast:

The snow started falling here at around 10am Friday morning, and around that time I decided to increase totals on my forecast:

2nd forecast:

Deck furniture, as it started... with some snow from Tuesday left over:

The snow began to stick around 3pm and at that time, I increased my totals again, one final time, as it became very evident that this would be an historic storm:

...and it appeared that the National Weather Service agreed, as Blizzard Warnings were hoisted:

By 4pm, the first inch of snow had fallen:

The snow was light for a few hours, but as the following radar clip illustrates, we had a long way to go:

Around 7pm, the intensity began to pick up and temperatures continued to drop while the snow and winds were raging. We were up to 5.0 inches already and the storm was just getting started.

Here is a picture of my measuring surface or snowboard (our deck table). On the left side is the area I left undisturbed to measure snow depth, and on the right side is the area I cleared every 6 hours to determine the official snow accumulation:

The heavy snow continued and by 2:00am, I measured 10.6 inches on the snowboard (giving us a total of 15.6), and 15.0 inches on the undisturbed portion. That means we received 10.6 inches of snow in 5 hours, or 2.12 inches an hour:

The heavy snow continued and at 3:00am, I measured 13.0 inches on the snowboard (2.4 more inches in one hour), bringing our total up to 18.0 inches fallen with a depth of 16.8 inches:

The radar at this time began to make some "weather weenies" nervous as a dryslot was making a beeline for the DC area:

What was happening was the storm was re-organizing off the Carolina coast and would "pivot" so that the moisture stopped moving from southwest to northeast and would begin to move southeast to northwest, keeping DC and points north in the snow. After watching the radar and seeing that this pivot was indeed occurring, I decided to take a 5 hour "nap" so that I could be up at 9 to measure and clear my snowboard.

I woke up at 8:30 to heavy snow still falling and this scene outside my front door:

The 5 trips out to shovel the night before were barely distinguishable. I took my official 9:00am measurement to find that since 3:00am, 5.5 more inches had fallen:

At 10:30, I decided to begin digging out. Here is a before and after shot of my walk:

While shoveling, I had my little buddy out there to keep me company:

Here are some additional shots, as the snow continued to pile up and the neighborhood begins to dig:

At 3:00 I took my 6 hour official measurements and 4.0 inches had accumulated on the snowboard and 23.5 inches were on the undisturbed half:

The snow ended around 4pm and I took one last measurement. We picked up an additional 0.2 inches after 3pm, bringing our accumulation total to 27.7 inches.

Here is a snapshot of my measurements:

With just about 2 feet of snow on the ground, it is easy to lose perspective. Here are a few shots to show just how deep it is:

Shoveling a pile, taller than you:

About 5 feet of wind blown snow on your roof:

Piling snow against a 5 foot fence:

Your backyard pond, 2 feet below you:

Snow as deep as your rain gauge that is placed 2 feet above the ground (and has 2 feet of snow piled on top of it):

And finally, the scene today...

The view from my living room window:

The kids across the street, sitting on a snow pile that is at least 8 feet tall:

The digging out continued today and we are just about done... just in time for the next storm that may hit on Tuesday and Wednesday...

2/6/10: Record - BWI poised to break snowfall record

2010-02-06T12:15:00.004-05:00

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1204 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION...EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY...

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

...POISED TO SET ALL-TIME STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RECORD FOR BALTIMORE...

BLIZZARD WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM FOR MARYLAND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC AND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL 10 PM.

AT 11:45 AM THIS MORNING...WEATHER OBSERVERS AT BALTIMORE`S THURGOOD MARSHALL BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 26.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THIS IS ONLY 1.7 INCHES SHY OF THE 28.2 INCH RECORD FROM THE PRESIDENTS DAY FEBRUARY 2003 STORM. THE AIRPORT IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE THE
STORM ENDS THIS EVENING. A RECORD REPORT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN THE RECORD IS REACHED.

GENERALLY...24 TO 32 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS NORTH OF A LINE BETWEEN ANNAPOLIS MD TO WASHINGTON DC TO PETERSBURG WV. SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO CHARLOTTESVILLE VA...APPROXIMATELY 14 TO 20 INCHES HAVE FALLEN.

AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES LATER THIS EVENING. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

2/5/10: Forecast Update - THIRD FORECAST MAP for the 2/5-2/6 Storm

2010-02-05T14:56:00.006-05:00

Well, I thought my last map would be my final forecast, but latest trends indicate that my totals would be too low. Here is my third and final call for this storm:

Snow is beginning to pick up in intensity and is starting to stick to untreated surfaces. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly through the rest of this afternoon and through tonight. This is shaping up to be a historic storm, possibly the biggest storm in the history books at both Washington (DCA - 28.0" in 1922) and Baltimore (BWI - 28.2" in 2003).

2/5/10: Outlook - Special Weather Statement

2010-02-05T12:46:00.005-05:00

WWUS81 KLWX 051734
SPSLWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502-
060145-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG... COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON
1234 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...RECORD SNOWFALL FORECAST IN THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON DC REGION...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH VISIBILITIES FREQUENTLY FALLING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE DUE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT TO PRODUCE NEAR-BLIZZARD AND EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT AND WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS.

LOOKING BACK AT THE BIGGEST STORM OF RECORD FOR WASHINGTON DC... THE JANUARY 1922 KNICKERBOCKER STORM...28.0 INCHES OF SNOW WAS PRODUCED FROM 3.02 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER. CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT HAVE TOTAL LIQUID FALLING FROM THIS STORM APPROACHING 3 INCHES...WHICH ACCORDINGLY WOULD CREATE A SNOWFALL THAT WILL RIVAL THE KNICKERBOCKER STORM TOTAL. GENERALLY ACROSS THE REGION...20 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL BY SATURDAY EVENING.

BALTIMORES RECORD OF 26.8 INCHES FROM THE PRESIDENTS DAY FEBRUARY 2003 STORM WILL ALSO BE THREATENED.

A FEW PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ITEMS TO NOTE:

1. FOLLOW MANUFACTURERS INSTRUCTIONS WHEN OPERATING A GENERATOR OR AXILLARY HEATER. ENSURE PORTABLE GENERATORS ARE ADEQUATELY VENTILATED.

2. TRAVEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING. HELP YOUR LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENT FIRST RESPONDERS AND TRANSPORTATION AGENCIES BY STAYING OFF ROADS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

3. FOLLOW LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY DECLARATION ORDERS. IF YOU ABSOLUTELY NEED TO TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY...DO NOT TRAVEL ALONE. LET SOMEONE KNOW YOUR TIMETABLE AND YOUR PRIMARY AND ALTERNATE ROUTES. CARRY WITH YOU A WINTER STORM SURVIVAL KIT WHICH INCLUDES A MOBILE PHONE...BLANKETS...FLASHLIGHT WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...HIGH CALORIE NON-PERISHABLE FOOD AND WATER...AND A SHOVEL.

4. IF YOU GET STRANDED IN YOUR VEHICLE...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO WALK FOR ASSISTANCE...YOU CAN QUICKLY BECOME DISORIENTED IN WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND COLD. THIS STORM WILL SUBSIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WAIT IN YOUR CAR FOR EMERGENCY HELP TO ARRIVE. PERIODICALLY RUN YOUR ENGINE FOR ABOUT 10 MINUTES EACH HOUR FOR HEAT. ENSURE YOUR EXHAUST PIPE IS CLEARED OF SNOW AND ICE. CRACK YOUR WINDOWS TO AVOID CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING. TIE A COLORED CLOTH TO YOUR CARS ANTENNA TO BE VISIBLE TO RESCUERS. FROM TIME-TO-TIME...MOVE YOUR ARMS...LEGS...FINGERS...AND TOES TO KEEP
BLOOD CIRCULATING.

5. AVOID OVEREXERTION WHEN SHOVELING SNOW. BREAK THE SHOVELING DOWN INTO SMALLER JOBS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

6. IN CASE OF POWER SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS...HAVE AVAILABLE FLASH LIGHTS WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...EXTRA FOOD AND WATER...EXTRA MEDICINES.

7. ENSURE ANY PETS AND FARM ANIMALS HAVE PLENTY OF WATER...FOOD... AND SHELTER.

FINALLY...THE KEY TO GETTING THROUGH THIS AND OTHER PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS WITH ADVANCE PLANNING AND BEING AWARE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS STORM WILL BE WINDING DOWN EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...SO DO YOUR PART AND LET YOUR LOCAL AND STATE GOVERNMENTS RESTORE ROADWAYS TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY STAYING AT HOME.

$$

LEE/CS

WWWW

2/5/10: Forecast Update - SECOND FORECAST MAP for the 2/5-2/6 Storm

2010-02-05T10:36:00.007-05:00

As the first flakes begin to fall here in Millersville, I have updated my forecast based on the latest information. This is my final forecast for this storm...

I believe there is a chance that the southern end of Calvert and St. Mary's counties could mix with sleet at times, but this is primarily a heavy snow for just about all areas, except the lower Eastern Shore where mixing will be a bigger issue and will cut down on totals.

2/4/10: Forecast - First FORECAST MAP for the 2/5-2/6 Storm

2010-02-04T17:01:00.008-05:00

Summary - Right now, everything is on track for a major winter storm to effect the area starting late tomorrow morning. Snow will quickly become heavy and continue through the night and most of the day on Saturday. Snow should begin to wind down Saturday evening. Winds will also be an issue, gusting over 30 mph at times. I expect bands of heavy snow to set up over Central Maryland, where most places should have no problems getting to 18", with isolated spots over 2 feet.

Here is my current forecast map:

There could be some mixing with sleet at times as the storm intensifies off the coast, this will be more likely well south and east of the Metro area.

There still could be some changes between now and tomorrow, but this is my thinking at this time.

2/4/10: Outlook - WINTER STORM WARNING

2010-02-04T10:11:00.007-05:00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 AM EST THU FEB 4 2010

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 16 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN MID-MORNING FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING BETWEEN SUNSET FRIDAY TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE...PRODUCING NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 19 DECEMBER STORM. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

$$

KRAMAR/LEE/GMS

WWWW

2/3/10: Outlook - WINTER STORM WATCH now in effect

2010-02-03T14:47:00.013-05:00

In a somewhat surprising move, the National Weather Service has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for the area, and even include a general accumulation forecast...

--------------------------------------

WWUS41 KLWX 031945

WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EST WED FEB 3 2010

..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE 12 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MORNING FRIDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 30 DEGREES.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIMILAR TO THE DECEMBER 19TH STORM. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

$$
PELOQUIN/SCHOOR/LEE/STRONG/ZUBRICK

WWWW

2/3/10: Outlook - HPC: "...MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRI/SAT..."

2010-02-03T09:17:00.005-05:00

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center posted this today:

A VERY HEAVY EVEN CRIPPLING SNOW IS LOOKING LIKELY OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SRN NJ/SOUTHEAST PA/DE/MD/NRN VA/ERN PANHANDLE DAY 3 FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NRN STREAM JET WITH A BRIEF COUPLING OF THE SRN STREAM LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION WITH VERY STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES. OVERALL MODEL QPF CONSENSUS AVERAGE 1-1.5 LIQUID EQUIVILENT OVER AREAS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW INDICATES POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE. GALE FORCE ONSHORE WINDS CONT ALONG THE DELMARVA/NJ COAST SAT AS A DEEPENING SFC LOW EXITS THE NC SOUNDS AND MOVES EAST OF THE VA CAPES. THERE ARE SIMILARITIES TO THE FEB 11-12 1983 STORM WITH A MORE SUPRESSED NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN AND AS FAR SOUTH WITH COLD AIR.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

Here are their forecast maps for potential snowfall...

Day 3 Probability of at Least 4 inches:

Day 3 Probability of at Least 8 inches:

Day 3 Probability of at Least 12 inches:

2/2/10: Outlook - The weekend system

2010-02-02T17:15:00.012-05:00

Who would have thought a 3-6" snowfall in Maryland would be "the small one" this week? The models continue to advertise a major - if not historic - snowstorm for the region this weekend. Computer model guidance has converged on a solution that would bring an area of low pressure up from the Gulf and into Kentucky as a new, stronger low forms along the Carolinas. This low then moves up the coast, off the Delmarva and out to sea.

The exact track is unknown at this time, but if the current solutions verify, we will again be measuring snow by the feet and we could see our second Top 10 snowstorm of the season.

Here is the total precipitation map from the latest GFS model run:

This map shows 1.25"- 2.00" of liquid precipitation has fallen, ending on Sunday afternoon. Taking a standard 10 to 1 ratio of snow to rain and that would be 12.5" - 20" of snow!

Of course, as always, things can and will change. Stay tuned as the details come into better focus!

2/2/10: Forecast Update - More Snow Tonight

2010-02-02T12:07:00.013-05:00

It appears that the system that will effect us tonight has better dynamics and more moisture than first thought... I think a general 2-4" is more likely, but 3-6" isn't out of the question.

--------------------------------------------

WWUS41 KLWX 021703
WSWLWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1203 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

MDZ004>007-010-011-014-030115-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.100202T2100Z-100203T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.100202T2200Z-100203T1200Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS
1203 PM EST TUE FEB 2 2010

..WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...BEGINNING BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...ENDING BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MID EVENING.

* WINDS...EAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$
PELOQUIN

2/2/10: Forecast - Snow Tonight and This Weekend

2010-02-02T09:41:00.007-05:00

Snow or a rain/snow mix should start later this afternoon, becoming
all snow.

The snow will accumulate 1-3 inches tonight into early
tomorrow morning east of the mountains. 2-4 inches is possible for the Blue Ridge westward.

Another, bigger storm is on tap for this weekend. The details of that
storm are still to be determined, but it looks like it will be a major
storm for the east coast. The exact track will determine how much
snow we will get as well as if there is a chance of mixing or changing
over to sleet or rain.

Stay tuned!